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Avalanche Forecast

Dec 19th, 2012–Dec 20th, 2012
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Cariboos.

Confidence

Fair - Due to limited field observations

Weather Forecast

Wednesday night:  Strong to Extreme SW winds at ridgetop.Thursday: Strong to Extreme SW winds at ridgetop.  1500m temp -10. Light to moderate snowfall resulting in 5 - 15 cm of snow.Friday: Light to Moderate SW winds at ridgetop.  1500m temp -15.  Clearing skies.Saturday:  Variable southerly winds at ridgetop.  1500m temp -15. Occasional flurries.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanche observations.  Observations are welcome, please email us: forecaster@avalanche.ca

Snowpack Summary

The upper snowpack comprises deep amounts of unconsolidated snow in sheltered locations, and soft slabs in open, exposed locations. These slabs are most likely immediately behind ridge crests and downslope ribs. There's ample recent snow available to fuel slab development if winds pick up. Overall, the top and mid-snowpack is reported to be settling well. Persistent and Deep persistent instabilities (surface hoar and an early November crust, respectively) located in the middle and near the bottom of the snowpack may still be a concern but there's little recent evidence of them. It is important to know that we have very limited observations for this region. Digging down and making your own observations, especially in thinner snowpack areas, remains a good idea to assist safe slope selection. You're looking for weak layers that pop or drop in stability tests.

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Wednesday evening is a bit of "game changer" as SW winds amp up to extreme values and begin to form sensitive wind slabs. There is potential for large human triggered avalanches in wind exposed features.
Conditions are changing and you need to adapt your plans accordingly. Avoid wind exposed terrain at and above treeline.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 2 - 6