Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

Warm temperatures and high freezing levels continue with moderate winds and precipitation in the south of the region on Wednesday. WEDNESDAY: Another 10-20cm of fresh snow is possible in the very south of the region, accompanied by moderate south winds. Freezing levels near 1700m. THURSDAY: Sunny breaks with flurries (up to 5cm) accompanied by moderate southwest winds. Freezing levels dropping to 1200m. FRIDAY: Cloudy with isolated flurries (5cm) with moderate southwest winds. Freezing levels near 1200m.

A widespread natural avalanche cycle to Size 2.5 was reported below treeline on Monday afternoon as temperatures warmed up.Wet slabs to Size 2 were also reported on east aspects below treeeline. On Saturday skiers in the north of the region were able to trigger a Size 1.5 storm slab, sliding on a wind-pressed layer below. See here for their MIN report.

Warming temperatures on Monday afternoon destabilized the snowpack, resulting in a widespread natural avalanche cycle below treeline. Use extra caution for the time being in what is normally a 'safer' elevation band. Surface snow up to 2000m is moist (read: heavy). We've had 5-15cm of fresh snow (with moderate to strong southerly winds) each of the past several days. Touchy storm slabs can be found at all elevations with weaknesses within and under this recent snow.Recent moderate to strong southerly winds have created reactive wind slabs at treeline and above. All this recent snow is bonding slowly to faceted snow, thin sun crust on steep southerly aspects, as well as surface hoar in sheltered areas in some parts of the region.About 80-120 cm below the surface you may find the mid-February persistent weakness. Professionals in the region have also warned that a 'threshold load' has been reached above this interface, particularly where it presents as a crust.Deep persistent weaknesses (over 1.5 metres down) still have the potential to react to human triggers or smaller slab avalanches, especially with the warming temperatures or solar inputs.