Avalanche forecast

Jasper

Apr 15 – 16, 2017Parks Canada
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Archived · expired 9 years ago

Avalanche danger

Mon
Tue
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

Weather forecasts have not been reliable in predicting snowfall and temps recently. Watch for, and carefully evaluate changes happening over the day.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–3
    Mod SW winds has reactive alpine windslab on lee slopes. If triggered, these could step down to the deep persistent slab resulting in very large avalanches.

  • Cornices

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely - Possible
    Size
    2–3
    Rapid warming in temperature or intense solar will increase the likelihood of cornice failure.

  • Deep Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely - Possible
    Size
    2–4
    The deep instability could be triggered by large loads such as a cornice failure or a surface avalanche. Human triggering is most likely from shallow spots or on steep unsupported slopes.

Weather Forecast

Cloudy with clear periods and isolated flurries overnight, though really only a trace of new expected. Good cooling overnight. Wake up to scattered clouds and glorious sunshine with increasing clouds over the day. Light winds and freezing level rising at 2000m (roadside at Parkers or TL in the Bald hills).

Snowpack Summary

New windslab on open slopes above 2400m. Dryer surface snow on polar aspects over a solid mid-pack bridging the weak base above 2000m. The base is a combination of weak facets and depth hoar mixed around a Nov rain crust. A consistent melt-freeze cycle is occurring below tree line.

Avalanche Summary

Several large windslab avalanches around 2400 m on x-loaded gulley features and steep lee slopes observed south of Icefields on Friday. Nothing new reported or observed on Saturday.

Confidence

Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain

Regions covered