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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 15th, 2019–Jan 16th, 2019

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Kootenay Boundary.

Use caution stepping out onto steeper slopes. Be aware of areas with a thin, shallow snowpack, these are the most suspect for lingering problems.

Confidence

Moderate - Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain on Thursday

Weather Forecast

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with clear periods. Freezing level dropping to valley bottom. Alpine low -4. Light winds. WEDNESDAY: Mix of sun and cloud. Freezing level near 1300 m. Alpine high near -2. Moderate south winds. THURSDAY: Cloudy with flurries, 5-10 cm. Freezing level below 1000 m. Alpine high -3. Moderate south-southeast winds.FRIDAY: Cloudy with isolated flurries, trace to 5 cm, with heavier snowfall Saturday. Freezing level 1200 m. Alpine high -3. Light to moderate southwest winds.More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Avalanche Summary

There were several size 1-1.5 loose wet avalanches on sunny slopes on Saturday.A wind-loaded NW slope was triggered remotely by skiers on Copper Mountain on Friday. The avalanche was reported to have failed on a layer of surface hoar. See the MIN report here.

Snowpack Summary

Daytime warming and cool overnight temperatures have promoted settlement of upper snowpack layers and created surface crusts on solar aspects. Cold, dry snow may still be found on north aspects in the alpine. Large surface hoar has begun to form particularly on shaded aspects. While not a concern yet (an maybe really neat to ski), this is something to keep in mind forecasted snowfall this weekend buries the weak layer.Wind slabs exist in alpine areas and may overlie buried surface hoar. Professionals continue to monitor a couple of persistent weak layers in the upper 50-150 cm of the snowpack. Persistent weak layers are most likely to be triggered from thin, rocky areas with a variable snowpack or with a large load, like cornice fall.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.