Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

Stormy overnight with strong southwest winds, 5-8 cm of new snow, and freezing levels around 1200 metres. Storm continuing on Wednesday with extreme southwest winds, 5-8 cm of new snow, and freezing levels around 1500 metres. Clearing and cooler on Thursday with moderate southwest winds. Mix of sun and cloud on Friday with light winds.

No new avalanches reported. Windslab and loose snow avalanches have been likely to be triggered in isolated terrain by the additional load of a skier or rider. Conditions are expected to change overnight as a new storm moves into the region and new storm slabs develop. I expect this will result in a direct action cycle of storm slab avalanches. As the load increases over the next few days we will be looking closely at recent persistent weak layers and discussing the likelihood of these layers failing under the new load of storm snow combined with wind and warm temperatures.

The new storm brought variable snow fall amounts to this region overnight. Chappel creek had 35 cm and near Blue River there was 24cm reported. The developing storm slab is expected to be sensitive to light additional loads, and may release naturally with continued loading from new snow and wind. Previous to the new storm, recent cold and clear weather has promoted both faceting of surface snow as well as the growth of surface hoar that has been reported to be up to 7mm in size in sheltered areas below treeline. Below the surface, our recent storm snow was redistributed by moderate to strong southwest and more recent northerly winds in exposed upper areas. In deeper snowpack parts of the region, the mid-December facet layer lies up to 120 cm below the surface. In these areas, professionals feel this layer has generally gained considerable strength. In shallower areas, particularly those in the southeast (Allen Creek), North (Sugarbowl) and likely some western areas around Quesnel and Barkerville, the snowpack is likely a lot more suspect, with a thicker, more pronounced facet layer buried only 50-60 cm below the surface.