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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 10th, 2018–Dec 11th, 2018

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Lizard-Flathead.

Snow amounts should remain light on Tuesday. If more than 15 cm new snow arrives, bump danger to Considerable for windy areas.

Confidence

Moderate - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain

Weather Forecast

Monday Night: Only trace amounts of new snow expected overnight.Tuesday: 4-8 cm new snow expected with moderate southwesterly winds. Freezing level rising to around 600 m at the end of the day. A further 10-20 cm possible Tuesday night. Wednesday: Flurries. Moderate northwesterly winds. Freezing level around 1200 m.Thursday: Light snow, 2-4 cm. Strong southwesterly winds. Freezing level rising to around 1400 m.

Avalanche Summary

Recent avalanche activity has been limited to a few small wind slabs and loose dry avalanches, mostly in steep alpine terrain.The last notable avalanche was a size 2 human triggered avalanche on December 2nd in Cornice Bowl north of Fernie. It occurred on a northwest facing feature at 2300 m and ran on a crust layer. There are good photos in this MIN report.

Snowpack Summary

Early season conditions prevail in this region with roughly 100 cm of snow in alpine areas and much less at lower elevations. Surface conditions range from soft power, to hard wind slab, and some sun crusts.See the snow profile in our field team's MIN report for a visual representation of the snowpack here. The main concern is a combination of weak facets and crusts in the bottom half of the snowpack. The crust is most prevalent at and above treeline and is likely most problematic on north-facing features, especially those that are large and planar in nature. A layer of large surface hoar can also be found at similar depths in some areas, as found in a recent MIN report here.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.