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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 1st, 2023–Mar 2nd, 2023

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Vancouver Island, East Island, North Island, South Island, West Island.

Northwest flow brings cold, dry snow. If you see more than 30 cm of new snow in your local area, treat avalanche danger as HIGH in the alpine. In some areas, slabs may fail down to a recently buried crust, resulting in larger than expected avalanches.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

A slew of MINs from the Mt Cain area over the weekend and Monday reported several rider triggered storm/wind slab avalanches up to size 2. With new snow piling on top, this type of activity can be expected to continue, but with potential for larger avalanches running naturally.

If you head into the backcountry please consider sharing your observations on the Mountain Information Network!

Snowpack Summary

New snow is likely being wind loaded into lee terrain features at wind-exposed elevations, while falling soft, cold and dry in sheltered areas.

A thick, widespread crust formed in mid February sits 20-40 cm deep. Near Mt Cain, a poor bond exists between this crust and the overlying snow. Elsewhere it seems to be bonding well. You can check in your local area by performing a simple hand shear test on an isolated block.

The mid and lower snowpack is well consolidated, containing a series of well-bonded crusts.

Weather Summary

A northwest flow will deliver the bulk of the snowfall and strongest wind from this system overnight Wednesday. The unstable, convective airmass following in the wake of the cold front will bring locally variable snowfall. Mount Cain is looking promising as a hot spot for Thursday.

Wednesday night

5-15 cm of new snow for most of the region, with up to 30 cm on the west coast. Strong southwest wind. Alpine low of -5 ºC.

Thursday

3-20 cm of new snow, localized distribution. Moderate to strong westerly wind. Alpine high -5 ºC.

Friday

Scattered flurries. Light southwest wind. Alpine high -5 ºC.

Saturday

Flurries. Moderate easterly wind. Alpine high -3 ºC.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Seek out sheltered terrain where new snow hasn't been wind-affected.
  • Dial back your terrain choices if you are seeing more than 30 cm of new snow.
  • Potential for wide propagation exists, fresh slabs may rest on surface hoar, facets and/or crust.
  • Keep in mind the crust offers an excellent bed surface for avalanches.
  • Be aware of the potential for loose avalanches in steep terrain where snow hasn't formed a slab.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Dry

Loose Dry avalanches are the release of dry unconsolidated snow and typically occur within layers of soft snow near the surface of the snowpack. These avalanches start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-dry avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs.