Avalanche forecast

Aspiring

New Zealand Avalanche Advisory
View on map

Avalanche danger

High Alpine · above 2,000 m
2 · Moderate
Alpine · 1,500 m–2,000 m
2 · Moderate
Sub Alpine · below 1,500 m
2 · Moderate
Out of date — this forecast expired last month. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

New snow will still be going through a settlement phase, and weaknesses may still exist in isolated areas.

Continue to evaluate the snowpack carefully and try to identify specific features of concern.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • All elevations
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2

    Storm and wind slab formed over the past few days may still exist on a range of aspects from east to south. These may still be reactive in isolated areas such as, just under ridgelines, around rock features or sharp roll overs, particularly above 1800m, where colder, larger quantities of snow fell from the last storm.

  • Loose Dry

    • All elevations
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1.5

    Currently, there is 20- 30 cm of very light dry snow overlying a slick rain crust, which are the perfect ingredient for loose dry avalanches. South aspects above around 1700m will be particularly prone to these over the next few days.

  • Loose Wet

    • All elevations
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1.5

    Northern aspects have recently been loaded with fresh snow and will likely go through a cycle of loose wet activity on steep north facing slopes during the middle of the day. Avoid travel under such slopes if you feel things are warming up and you see signs like rollerballing on the snow surface.

Forecast Confidence

Moderate

  • We are uncertain due to the variability of wind effect on the snowpack.
  • We are uncertain about how the timing or intensity of solar radiation will affect the snowpack.

Recent Avalanche Activity

No recent reports, although a cycle of natural avalanches has likely taken place since Thursday.

If you see any recent avalanche occurrences or have any relevant snowpack information or photos, you can share them via the Public Observations link on the NZAA home page.

Current Snowpack Conditions

Since Thursday, 50- 60 cm of new snow fell above 1800m. Below 1800 m, a significant amount of rain has soaked the snowpack before temperatures started to cool early Friday morning and finished with a possible about 20cm at around 1300m. Strong north-west winds may have redistributed much of the new snow in exposed areas during the storm and then again by south-west winds early Friday.

Previously, a small top-up of 4- 5 cm fell on the 18th, with strong south-west winds forming very small pockets of windloading just under ridgelines. Before this, gale westerly winds redistributed the 60- 70 cm of storm snow from earlier last week, mostly stripping west aspects back to hard ice or rock and loading east aspects above 2000m with 1-2m of dense snow. At around 1800m the snow depth is around 50-70cm and was capped by a supportive rain crust before the current storm.

Although the pack appears consolidated, in some isolated areas on mostly south-facing aspects above around 1900m, weak faceted forms may be starting to develop and should be monitored with future loading.

Mountain Weather

Forecast for Saturday

Mainly fine, but the odd shower and possibly severe frost in the morning.

Wind at 1000 metres Light.

Wind at 2000 metres Light.

Freezing level 600 metres, lifting to 1000 metres in the morning.

Issued: 12:24pm Sat 25 Jul

Sliding Danger

Mostly soft conditions however be aware that below around 1700m on all aspects a slick rain crust may be hiding just under the surface.

New Zealand Avalanche Advisory (NZ Mountain Safety Council)

Regions covered