Aspiring

Winds are forecast to rise to gale force from the NW during the day. These winds coupled with some loose dry surface conditions and fresh snow forecast to 1300m will see a new wind slab hazard develop on lee slopes. This could become quite reactive as snowfalls increase through the storm cycle particularly as at moderate altitudes this snow will be falling on slick bed surfaces.

This morning there will remain slick areas of frozen snow below 1900m.

A cycle of small wet loose and wet slab avalanches has been observed on solar aspects during the past two days. Glide cracks have been reported as developing on steep norht facing terrain at lower elevations.

If you see any recent avalanche occurrences or have any relevant snowpack information or photos, you can share them via the Public Observations link on the NZAA home page.

Above 1900m: A mix of facetted surface snow and wind pressed snow exists on south aspects. This snow has largely bonded well to the old snow surface and the upper and mid pack are generally showing settled characteristics as total snow depths have increased. With continued cold temperatures some near surface faceting has been observed. With the very strong winds experienced throughout the winter there is a high degree of spatial variability in the distribution of snow and there are still areas of unusually shallow snowpack at all elevations. The lower part of the snowpack appears consolidated and unreactive. Large cornices have also formed above 1800m.

Below 1900m rain last has saturated the snow pack creating a very stout supportive rain crust. With cold morning temperatures there is a very slick snow surface. With continued cold temperatures and a shallow snow pack some facet development has been observed.

Caution should still be taken, particularly in steeper, more extreme terrain where unknown weaknesses may exist.

A few showers becoming more frequent in the afternoon, possibly heavy. Snow lowering to 1300 metres in the afternoon.

Wind at 1000 metres: Light. Northwesterly 30 km/h developing in the morning, then rising to 60 km/h in the afternoon.

Wind at 2000 metres: Westerly 30 km/h, rising to northwesterly 50 km/h in the morning, then to gale 70 km/h in the evening.

Wind at 3000 metres: Northwesterly 50 km/h, rising to gale 70 km/h in the afternoon, then rising to severe gale 90 km/h in exposed places in the evening.

Freezing level: 1300 metres, lifting to 1600 metres in the afternoon.

Last week rain fell to 1900m creating a very slick frozen snow surface which with cold temperatures will present a sliding hazard. Take care. An ice axe and crampons could be necessary.

Moderate

• The snowpack structure is well understood.
• We have a good understanding of the snowpack structure and confidence in the weather forecast.
• We are confident the likelihood of avalanches will increase with the forecast weather.