Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain on Saturday

5-10 cm of snowfall is expected Friday overnight with moderate to strong southwest wind in the alpine and freezing levels around 1000 m. Another 3-6 cm is expected on Saturday with the possibility of sunny breaks in the afternoon. Alpine wind is forecast to be moderate from the southwest and freezing levels are expected to reach around 1400 m. On Sunday, a mix of sun and cloud is expected with light alpine wind and freezing levels reaching around 1600 m. Mainly cloudy conditions are forecast for Monday with light snow flurries.

On Thursday, a natural size 2 avalanche was reported on a southeast aspect at 2600 m. Skiers triggered a couple size 1 storm slabs on northwest and east aspects at 2100 m which were 20-25 cm thick. No new avalanches were observed on Wednesday. On Tuesday, a size 3 cornice released on a northeast aspect at 2800 m scrubbed down to rock and a size 2.5 storm slab released on a north aspect at 1900 m. Explosives released a cornice on a north aspect which triggered a size 3.5 deep persistent slab which stepped down to the November crust and to the ground in places. Explosives also released a size 2 cornice with a small slab and a size 2.5 persistent slab on a south aspect which failed on the mid-February crust layer down 120 cm. On Saturday, storm slabs are expected to be reactive at higher elevations, especially in wind loaded terrain and on steep convexities. Cornices are large and may become weak with daytime warming or during stormy periods. We are in a low probability, high consequence scenario for persistent slab avalanches failing on buried weak layers. Click here for more details. Click here for photos of the recent large avalanche cycle.

15-30 cm of new snow overlies a rain crust at lower elevations or a sun crust on solar aspects at higher elevations. Alpine wind has recently been strong mainly from south through west directions and has loaded leeward slopes in exposed terrain at treeline and in the alpine. Large cornices are also reported and expected to be biggest on northerly aspects in the alpine. The mid-March crust is down 40-60 cm in the south of the region and shallower in the north. The mid-February crust/facet layer is now typically down 100-150 cm and has recently been reactive with many avalanches stepping down to it. The deep mid-December facet layer and November rain crust both still linger near the bottom of the snowpack and a few avalanches stepped down to these layers recently resulting in very large avalanches.