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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Dec 9th, 2014–Dec 10th, 2014
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Cariboos.

The warm, wet, windy storm continues. Backcountry ski conditions are reported to be terrible and avalanche hazard remains elevated. Now is a good time for indoor activities or take your rain gear with you to your local ski hill.

Confidence

Fair - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

Weather Forecast

The storm system continues to bring warm, wet conditions to the interior for Wednesday and Thursday. The south of the Cariboos region can expect another 10-20mm on Wednesday and 10-20mm for Thursday. Freezing levels on both days are expected to be 2200-2500m. Alpine winds should remain strong-extreme but might start to taper off late-Thursday. On a positive note, things should start to change on Friday. Freezing levels should drop, winds should ease, and we may see new snow at higher elevations.

Avalanche Summary

We haven't received any observations since the storm started.  The conditions are very similar in the North Columbia region where natural activity up to size 2.5.  See the North Columbia bulletin for more details.

Snowpack Summary

The storm snow is expected to be wet up to around 2000 m and moist up to around 2400 m. Below the old storm snow (15-30cm) is a weak layer of surface hoar. Reports from the region suggest that anywhere from 50-150 cm of settling snow overlies one or more weak layers which formed during November. Snowpack tests suggest that these weak layers are getting harder to trigger but still have the potential to produce large avalanches if triggered. Recent wind has created wind slabs in lee features in exposed alpine terrain.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm slabs will continue to build at higher elevations as the storm progresses. Strong winds will quickly reload leeward features.
Avoid all avalanche terrain during periods of heavy loading from new snow, wind, or rain.>Minimize exposure to overhead avalanche terrain, large avalanches may reach run out zones.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Likely - Very Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 4

Persistent Slabs

Likelihood of triggering a deep weak layer is expected to increase with new storm loading and warming. Any slopes that did not avalanche during the last storm cycle should still be considered hazardous. Smaller avalanches may trigger a deep release.
Choose well supported terrain without convexities.>Avoid common trigger zones including thin snowpack areas, near rocky outcrops, and steep alpine slopes.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 2 - 5

Loose Wet

Rain at lower elevations will reduce the stability of the upper snowpack and loose wet avalanches are expected in steep terrain.
Be cautious of sluffing in steep terrain.>Avoid areas with steep overhead hazard.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 4