Avalanche forecast

South Rockies

Mar 2 – 3, 2015Avalanche Canada
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Avalanche danger

Wed
Thu
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

A surging Arctic front should deliver light snow and moderate winds, which will elevate the avalanche danger slightly.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible - Likely
    Size
    1–2
    Forecast new snow and moderate northerly winds could combine to create fresh wind slabs in exposed lee terrain. The new snow could also sluff off as loose dry avalanches in steep sheltered terrain.

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    3–6
    Triggering this problem is unlikely, but be wary of high north aspects where the near-surface crust is absent or breakable, and use caution around large overhanging cornices.

Confidence

Fair - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain on Monday

Weather Forecast

Mainly clear skies are expected for the forecast period as a dry ridge rebuilds. Ridge top winds are expected to remain generally moderate from the northwest. Freezing levels are forecast to sit at valley bottom for Tuesday and Wednesday, and then rise to about 1600m on Thursday.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches have been reported recently but observations are limited.

Snowpack Summary

A few centimeters of new snow sits on the previous snow surface, which was a mix of surface hoar, crusts, wind affected surfaces, or dry powder. The most prominent snowpack features is a thick supportive crust around 10-30 cm below the surface. It extends up to around 2200m. Below this elevation the crust is effectively capping the snowpack, preventing riders from tickling deeper persistent weak layers. In alpine areas, where the crust is not present or is less thick, it could still be possible to trigger a deep avalanche from sparsely covered rocky slopes or with a heavy load (i.e. cornice fall).

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