Avalanche forecast

Aspiring

New Zealand Avalanche Advisory
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Avalanche danger

High Alpine · above 2,000 m
1 · Low
Alpine · 1,500 m–2,000 m
1 · Low
Sub Alpine · below 1,500 m
1 · Low
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Highlights

With rain falling on Tuesday and Wednesday up to 1900m saturating the snow pack and cold temperatures forecast for the day there will a high sliding hazard at mid and lower elevations. Carry an ice axe and crampons. Above 1900m up to 40cm of snow fell accompanied by winds up to gale strength from the NW - there may remain isolated pockets of unstable wind slab in steeper terrain. There was dusting of snow yesterday accompanied by moderate southerly winds - there may be some small pockets of fresh wind slab at higher elevations on slopes lee to the south.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • All elevations
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1.5

    Approximately 15-40cm of new snow fell from Tuesday to Thursday. The combination of this snowfall and gale force winds from the NW 1/4 plus existing large amounts of loose dry snow available for transport created a windslab hazard. Though this seems to have settled, unstable pockets slopes lee to the NW may exist on specific terrain features at higher elevations. A dusting of snow and wind from the south yesterday may have seen new pockets of wind slab develop.

  • Wet Slabs

    • All elevations
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1

    Temperatures are forecast to remain cold today but with the afternoon solar effect and a previously saturated snow pack there may be the chance of wet slab activity at lower elevations.

Recent Avalanche Activity

On the 14th wet slab and loose wet avalanches were observed at mid and lower elevations due to the a warm wet cycle. Above 1900m isolated natural wind slab activity was observed in pockets of steeper terrain on slopes lee to the west.

If you see any recent avalanche occurrences or have any relevant snowpack information or photos, you can share them via the Public Observations link on the NZAA home page.

Current Snowpack Conditions

Above 1900m: There was dusting of snow yesterday accompanied by moderate southerly winds. Approximately 15-40cm of new snow fell from Tuesday to Thursday. This snow has largely bonded well to the old snow surface and the upper and mid pack are generally showing settled characteristics as total snow depths have increased and with warmer temperatures recorded. With the very strong winds experienced throughout the winter there is a high degree of spatial variability in the distribution of snow and there are still areas of unusually shallow snowpack at all elevations. The lower part of the snowpack appears consolidated and unreactive. Large cornices have also formed above 1800m.

Below 1900m rain has saturated the snow pack turning it isothermic. With colder temperatures there is a very slick snow surface.

Caution should still be taken, particularly in steeper, more extreme terrain where unknown weaknesses may exist.

Mountain Weather

Fine.

Wind at 1000 metres: Gale southeasterly 70 km/h, easing to 50 km/h early afternoon, and to 30 km/h at night.

Wind at 2000 metres: Southerly 55 km/h, rising to gale southeasterly 75 km/h in the morning. Easing to southerly 50 km/h late afternoon, then to 30 km/h at night.

Wind at 3000 metres: Southerly 40 km/h, rising to gale 65 km/h in the morning, easing to 40 km/h at night.

Freezing level: 800 metres, rising to 1200 metres in the evening.

Sliding Danger

Rain has fallen to 1900m creating a very slick frozen snow surface which with cold temperatures will present a sliding hazard all day. Take care. An ice axe and crampons could be necessary.

Forecast Confidence

High

  • The snowpack structure is well understood.
  • We have a good understanding of the snowpack structure and confidence in the weather forecast.

New Zealand Avalanche Advisory (NZ Mountain Safety Council)

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