Avalanche Forecast
Issued: Jan 15th, 2023 4:00PM
The alpine rating is , the treeline rating is , and the below treeline rating is Known problems include Storm Slabs.
bchristie,
Avalanche Canada
Start on small features and gain confidence before moving into bigger terrain. The recent snow is mostly loose, but if a slab is present, it could easily avalanche on a layer of weak, feathery, surface hoar crystals.
Summary
Confidence
Moderate
Avalanche Summary
No new avalanches were reported before 4pm on Sunday.
On Saturday, several size 2 avalanches were reported at Hankin, Ashman, and in the Babines. These avalanches were easily triggered by the weight of a rider, and they propagated across whole terrain features. They were sliding on a layer of weak, feathery surface hoar crystals, 20cm below the snow surface.
Snowpack Summary
20-30 cm of generally soft snow sits above a layer of surface hoar crystals in sheltered areas. If wind or warmish temperatures have formed any of this snow into a slab, expect it to avalanche under the weight of a rider. See the avalanche summary for recent reports of avalanches on this layer.
A weak layer of facets that formed during the arctic outbreak in December is buried 30 to 60 cm deep. Observations suggest it is fairly widespread, but rounding and gaining strength, and is not reactive to triggering under the current conditions.
Weather Summary
Sunday Night
Cloudy. 1-2 cm of snow expected. Light southwest wind. Alpine temperature around -5°C.
Monday
Mostly cloudy. No new snow expected. Light west wind. Alpine temperature around -5°C.
Tuesday
Possible clear periods overnight. Mostly cloudy through the day. 1-2 cm of snow expected. Moderate to strong south and southwest wind. Alpine temperature around -7°C.
Wednesday
Partly cloudy, clearing by the afternoon. Possible trace of snow expected. Moderate southwest wind. Freezing level rising to around 750m.
More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.
Terrain and Travel Advice
- Carefully assess open slopes and convex rolls where buried surface hoar may be preserved.
- Potential for wide propagation exists, fresh slabs may rest on surface hoar, facets and/or crust.
- When a thick, melt-freeze surface crust is present, avalanche activity is unlikely.
Problems
Storm Slabs
It may seem strange to have a storm slab problem when there hasn't been much new snow, but based on some avalanches observed on Saturday, previous storm snow may be settling into a more cohesive slab over a layer of weak, feathery surface hoar crystals. Not much wind transport was observed over the weekend, and the wind did not seem to be a factor in these reported avalanches. If you notice whumpfs or shooting cracks, retreat to mellower terrain.
It may be hard to predict the exact terrain where this problem exists. Approach steep terrain cautiously, or choose to remain in mellower terrain until this layer is tested with a larger load.
This MIN Report does a great job of explaining how the avalanche problem might present itself.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Valid until: Jan 16th, 2023 4:00PM
