Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Due to the number and quality of field observations

THURSDAY: Light flurries with accumulations of roughly 5 cm / moderate west wind / alpine temperatures around -8 C.FRIDAY: Weak frontal system bringing 5-10 cm of snow / moderate west wind / alpine temperatures around -6 C.SATURDAY: Moderate snowfall (amounts highly uncertain at this point) / moderate to strong west winds / alpine temperatures around -4 C.

No new avalanches were reported on Wednesday, suggesting the cooling trend has reduced the likelihood of natural avalanches for the moment.However, large storm slab and deep persistent slab avalanches have been reported on a regular basis for the past few weeks. On Tuesday, numerous large avalanches (size 2-3.5) were triggered naturally as well as with explosives. Many of the natural avalanches were triggered by cornices falling and releasing slabs on the December and November layers, producing 150-250 cm thick crowns. See the avalanche photos in this Mountain Information Network report for an example. The snowpack is still weak and additional stress (such as a cornice or person) could still trigger larger persistent slab avalanches.

The most recent snowfall was accompanied with strong gusty winds, leaving touchy slabs in the alpine and large fragile cornices. Warm temperatures on Monday left moist snow and crusts up to 1700 m.For the past month we have seen regular avalanche activity on multiple weak layers. A layer of surface hoar on sheltered aspects (especially prominent from 1400-1900 m) and sun crust on solar aspects was buried mid-January and is now 60-80 cm deep. Another surface hoar layer from early-January is buried 90-110 cm deep. A widespread weak layer from mid-December is composed of facets, crusts, and surface hoar and is now buried 120-160 cm deep. Finally, a rain crust with sugary facets buried late-November is near the bottom of the snowpack and is up to 200-250 cm deep. The bottom line is the snowpack structure in this region is weak. Human triggering is most likely on the shallower weak layers, but any avalanche has the potential to step down to deeper layers and become much larger.