Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Jasper.
Weather Forecast
A westerly flow in the upper atmosphere is pushing a series of weak frontal systems over our area, giving cool temps and light flurries.Up to 5 cm of snow will fall overnight into Thursday, with moderate SW ridgetop winds (tapering to light mid-morming). Alpine temps will be cold, with an overnight low of -18C, and a daytime high of -10C.
Snowpack Summary
Recent storm snow has been blown in to a wind slab up to 30cm thick. This has added to the previous slab sitting on a sun-crust on solar aspects and facets on polar aspects - these are now buried as deep as 60cm. Underneath the variable slab in the upper snowpack, as well as in shallow areas, the snowpack is generally facetted and weak.
Avalanche Summary
On Tuesday, avalanche control at Marmot Basin using explosives produced several size 2 slab avalanches. These were on Northerly alpine slopes, and failed on persistent weak layers. A recent MIN report from the Bald Hills has a good photo of an avalanche that occurred on an alpine NE aspect (from the photo it looks to have been skier triggered).
Confidence
Due to the number of field observations
Avalanche Problems
Persistent Slabs
Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South, South West.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1.5 - 3
Wind Slabs
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1 - 2
Cornices
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine.
Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible
Expected Size: 1 - 2