Keep a close eye on how the temperature and sun are affecting the snowpack in your local zone. The freezing level is forecasted to rise well into the alpine for Tuesday morning, but other factors may keep the upper snowpack cool, lowering avalanche danger.
Summary
Confidence
Moderate - Uncertainty is due to how the snowpack will react to the forecast weather. A small change in the upper snowpack could dramatically change avalanche conditions.
Weather Forecast
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. No new rain/snow expected. Light north ridgetop wind. Freezing level rising to near 3000 m.Â
TUESDAY: No overnight refreeze is expected. Mostly cloudy. Moderate to strong south ridgetop wind. Freezing levels drop over the day to 1500 m.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Possible light snow/rain. Moderate southwest ridgetop wind. Freezing levels falling to around 1000 m.Â
THURSDAY: Mix of sun and cloud. Very light snow/rain expected. Light to moderate northwest ridgetop wind. Freezing level around 1200 m.
Avalanche Summary
On Monday, small, loose wet avalanche activity in the top 10 cms was most active on steep slopes in the sun. Â
If you venture into the mountains, please share any observations on the Mountain Information Network.Â
Snowpack Summary
Moist snow or a melt freeze crust exists to mountain top. The crust may break down as temperatures rise, and on south facing slopes as the sun pokes out.
Terrain and Travel
- Back off slopes as the surface becomes moist or wet with rising temperatures.
- The more the snow feels like a slurpy, the more likely loose wet avalanches will become.
- Make observations and assess conditions continually as you travel.
- When a thick, melt-freeze surface crust is present, avalanche activity is unlikely.
- Minimize your exposure time below cornices.
Problems
Loose Wet
With freezing levels rising into the alpine, the surface snow may become moist or wet, and natural and rider triggered loose wet avalanches could become likely.
The size of these avalanches will be mostly influenced by how deep the loose snow is.
- If there is a solid, supportive crust on the surface, avalanches will be unlikely.
- If the temperature is above zero, the sun is on a slope, and there is very little wind to keep the surface cool, avalanches will become more likely.
Pay close attention to conditions as they change through the day, the conditions you experience could be anywhere between the two extremes mentioned above.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Cornices
Cornices have not been reported to be particularly large or overhung, but there were several cornice falls reported during the last warm-up. With freezing levels forecasted to be as high as 3000 m on Tuesday, use extra caution above and under cornices, especially if they are baking in the sun.
Good travel habits around cornices include:
- stay far back from the edge when you are travelling on a corniced ridgetop
- Avoid travelling under cornices, or put as much distance and terrain as you can between you and the cornice if travelling under them is unavoidable.
- Travel one at a time under a suspect slope, with eyes on the person crossing.
Aspects: North, North East, West, North West.
Elevations: Alpine.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Valid until: Mar 29th, 2022 4:00PM
