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Avalanche Forecast

Jan 14th, 2016–Jan 15th, 2016
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable

Regions: Sea To Sky.

Touchy avalanche conditions are expected to persist for a couple more days due to a layer of buried surface hoar.

Confidence

Moderate - Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain on Saturday

Weather Forecast

Friday: Mainly clear, no precipitation is expected, light north easterly winds and a freezing level of 500m. Saturday: Snow starting overnight with 10-20cm expected by the end of the day, light southwesterly winds, and a freezing level between 1000 and 700m. Sunday: Snow forecast to continue overnight with another 20 to 30 by the end of the day, light to moderate southerly winds, and a freezing level of 1200m.

Avalanche Summary

There was wide spread avalanche activity on Thursday with numerous natural, explosive controlled, and skier accidental avalanches ranging from size 1-2. These avalanches failed on the layer of surface hoar down 30 to 40cm on all aspects at treeline and in the alpine.

Snowpack Summary

Between 20 and 50 cm of new snow continues to settle into a soft slab sitting above a widespread layer of surface hoar, facets, and/or sun crust on steep south aspects. 10-20 cm below this is a second buried weak layer of surface hoar and/or a crust. The mid and lower snowpack is generally strong, with the exception of shallower snowpack areas that may be more faceted. At lower treeline elevations recent rains have saturated the upper snowpack. At higher elevations moderate southerly winds have formed loaded lee features at treeline and in the alpine.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

The presence of a couple of layers of recently buried surface hoar means that the storm snow will take longer to stabilize than usual for the region. Watch for touchy slabs around convexities or in wind loaded terrain.
Avoid open slopes and convex rolls at and below treeline where buried surface hoar may be preserved.>Avoid freshly wind loaded features.>The new snow will require several days to settle and stabilize.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3