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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Jan 26th, 2020–Jan 27th, 2020
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Jasper.

A tricky snowpack. Potential for low probability/high consequence avalanches to ground in large steeper alpine terrain. Think about it before committing.

Weather Forecast

The next 4 days will bring consistently cloudy conditions with minimal precipitation expected. The winds are expected to increase to 45km out of the SW Tuesday and Wednesday. Freezing levels will remain in the valley bottom. Day time highs -6 Lows -13.

For more detailed analysis: Mountain Weather Forecast

Snowpack Summary

The snowpack is highly variable across the forecast area. The snowpack remains mainly facetted, particularly in shallow areas where there is less than 60cm of snow. There is inconsistent bridging in the mid-pack over the weak basal facets and depth hoar. Today's moderate winds redistributing recent storm snow into lee features in the ALP/TL.

Avalanche Summary

Forecasters skied in Nigel basin today. A few solar induced avalanches up to size 2 observed from the past 48 hours. Otherwise no new avalanches today observed.  Hazard increased in alpine today due to the winds.

Confidence

Due to the number and quality of field observations

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Continued mod SW winds have created new wind slabs

  • If triggered the wind slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.
  • Avoid lee and cross-loaded terrain near ridge crests.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, North West.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 2

Deep Persistent Slabs

This is a complex problem. The spacial variability and potential consequences of triggering a large avalanche on this layer makes it extremely difficult to gain confidence in the snowpack. Consider this before entering bigger features.

  • Avoid convexities or areas with a thin or variable snowpack.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 2 - 3

Persistent Slabs

Found in sheltered areas at treeline.  Eg. Nigel Basin.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Treeline.

Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size: 2 - 3