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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Nov 23rd, 2019–Nov 24th, 2019

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Lizard-Flathead.

Weather models suggest 5 to 10 cm of snow with strong wind Saturday night, but we could wake up to more. A conservative mindset and being on high-alert is important to manage early-season uncertainties.

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the limited number of field observations. Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain.

Weather Forecast

SATURDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with snowfall, accumulation 5 to 10 cm, moderate to strong west wind, alpine temperature -5 C, freezing level 1300 m.

SUNDAY: Morning snowfall and afternoon clearing, accumulation 5 cm, moderate to strong west wind, alpine temperature -5 C, freezing level 1400 m.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy skies, light northwest wind, alpine temperature -8 C, freezing level below valley bottom.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy skies, light east wind, alpine temperature -12 C, freezing level below valley bottom.

Avalanche Summary

Numerous storm slab avalanches were observed across the region on Tuesday and Wednesday. It is likely that they were sliding on the melt-freeze crust described in the snowpack summary. The new snow on Saturday night and Sunday will increase the likelihood of triggering avalanches at higher elevations in the mountains.

Observations are limited right now, with recreationists starting to get into the mountains and operations soon to open. If you see anything while out in the field, please consider sharing that information with us and fellow recreationists via the Mountain Information Network (MIN).

Snowpack Summary

New snow on Saturday night will fall with strong westerly wind, transporting snow to lee terrain features near ridges. This snow will continue the accumulation over two melt-freeze crusts found in the middle and near the base of the snowpack. There is uncertainty with how the snow is bonding to these crusts, and they may act as a sliding layer for snow above them. This requires conservative travel and being on high-alert to manage the uncertainty.

The snowline starts at about 1500 m. At around 1650 m, you may find about 40 cm of snow. As you move higher into the alpine, you could find between 50 and 100 cm of snow.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.