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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 28th, 2022–Mar 1st, 2022

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Vancouver Island.

Deep, reactive storm slabs continue to build over a slippery crust. At lower elevations, loose wet avalanches will be come increasingly likely as rain soaks the snowpack.

Confidence

Moderate - Forecast precipitation (either snow or rain) amounts are uncertain.

Weather Forecast

Monday night: Mixed precipitation, 5-10 mm, strong southwest wind, treeline temperature +3 C, freezing level 1500-1900 m.

Tuesday: Mixed precipitation, 5-15 mm, strong southwest wind, treeline high temperature +1 C, freezing level 1400 m.

Wednesday: Snow mixed with rain, 10-20 mm, moderate southwest wind, treeline high temperature 0 C, freezing level 1300 m.

Thursday: Clearing, light northwest wind, treeline high temperature 0 C, freezing level 1300 m.

Avalanche Summary

On Monday, our field team observed widespread natural avalanche activity size 1-2.5. A skier triggered size 2 storm slab was reported at Mt Cain on Sunday in this MIN.

Snowpack Summary

Within the 40-60 cm of new snow, a wet layer on the surface is stacked on top of lower density, dry snow. This configuration is referred to as upside-down and is often associated with short term instability while the soft bottom settles. Above ~1900 m, the surface remains dry and has seen extensive wind effect, with extremely variable depths and areas of hard wind slab.

The storm snow sits over a thin layer of weak crystals on a thick, widespread rain crust which makes a great sliding surface for avalanches.

The mid and lower snowpack is considered well settled and strong. Shallow snow cover at low elevations leaves many hazards like stumps and creeks exposed at or just below the snow surface.

Terrain and Travel

  • Minimize exposure during periods of heavy loading from new snow, wind or rain.
  • Use increased caution at all elevations. Storm snow is forming touchy slabs.
  • Keep in mind the crust offers an excellent bed surface for avalanches.
  • Keep in mind that wet avalanches can be destructive due to their high density.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.