Limit your exposure during periods of intense loading. Expect any slide to travel further and faster then expected and give yourself lots of room.
Weather Forecast
While models have come to an agreement, they now agree that we can expect less then we thought. Forecasts are for 8 to 12cms for Tuesday overnight and 20-30cm into the weekend. This is accompanied by transport speed winds (20+ kph). We can expect this to overload the snowpack but the overall intensity and timing is not clear.
Snowpack Summary
Much will depend on the forecasted snow coming Tuesday evening and through Thursday. New snow will be sitting and/or transported onto weak sandwiched wind slab layers in the lee. Our concerns lie with the top 25cms of the existing snowpack. These are moderately reactive on a already weaken, faceted snowpack at exposed tree line and alpine features.
Avalanche Summary
On Sunday, west of Jasper townsite and just outside the boundary of the park, a size 2 skier accidental happened in the afternoon. In an established slide path, a pair of skiers were crossing the path when they heard a whumph. One skier was able to ski to the side but a second skier was caught and rode it out for 70ms. Average crown depth 75cms.
Confidence
Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain on Wednesday
Problems
Wind Slabs
Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
Loose Dry
Loose Dry avalanches are the release of dry unconsolidated snow and typically occur within layers of soft snow near the surface of the snowpack. These avalanches start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-dry avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs.