New snow, winds and the passage of a cold front are expected to increase the avalanche hazard. At the higher elevations new soft slabs will begin to form on leeward aspects. These conditions will also be increasing the load on buried weak layers. Large persistent slab avalanches could become unstable due to this load and be triggered by humans. Monitor conditions for increasing hazards. A careful assessment of snowpack stability and conservative terrain choices are warranted.
Southwest to west winds will form pockets of new soft slab 6 to 18 inches deep on leeward aspects above an elevation of 8,000 feet. Rapid loading by gusty winds may increase the sensitivity of these slabs to human triggers.
Fresh snow and and gusty winds will be increasing the load on persistent weak layers. Large slab avalanches 2 to 4 feet deep at the mid and upper elevations and 1 to 2 feet deep below an elevation of 7,500 feet may become increasingly sensitive to human triggers. Natural releases may be possible in areas with poor snow structure.
( Discussion is generated from the previous day's afternoon forecast. )Periods of light to moderate snowfall are likely overnight and into the morning hours. This snowfall will increase in intensity in the afternoon and evening in association with the passage of a cold front. Accumulations of 6 to 12 inches in the mountains and 3 to 6 inches in the valleys are possible by Sunday evening. Temperatures will be in the single digits and teens in the mountains and in the teens and low 20s in the valleys. Winds along the higher ridge crests will veer towards the west and increase with some gusts to 50 miles per hour likely during the frontal passage on Sunday afternoon/evening.The general avalanche hazard will be on the increase, especially at the higher elevations which are expected to receive more snow and have higher winds. Fresh winds slabs will begin to form on leeward aspects and could be sensitive to human triggers in steep wind-loaded avalanche starting zones. The new snow and wind will also be increasing the load on persistent weak layers that exist in the snowpack at all elevations. Large slabs avalanches could be triggered by humans on these buried weak layers and could have severe consequences. The general avalanche hazard could increase from moderate to considerable during the day in areas that receive significant amounts of new snow and experience strong winds. A rapid increase in the hazard may occur in the afternoon during the passage of a cold front.
