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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 16th, 2019–Jan 17th, 2019

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Jasper.

Recent warm days and cool nights have strengthened the mid and upper snowpack, but changes to the deep persistent weakness will be much slower. A conservative approach is still warranted.

Weather Forecast

An arctic front approaching from the NE brings the potential for upslope flurries Thursday.  Followed by bands of precip embedded in a low this weekend, giving strong winds and rising temps.Thurs: Sun and cloud mix, light flurries. Alpine Low -15 C, High -8 C, light ridge wind.A detailed mountain weather forecast is available from Avalanche Canada.

Snowpack Summary

Surface conditions vary thanks to the past weeks drought - a thin crust on steep solar aspects, 5-10mm surface hoar in sheltered areas, and wind effect in exposed areas from moderate-strong SW winds. A generally strong mid snowpack overlies deep persistent weaknesses. Use caution in shallow areas where these deep weakness might be more reactive.

Avalanche Summary

Confidence

Problems

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.