Avalanche forecast

Aspiring

New Zealand Avalanche Advisory
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Avalanche danger

High Alpine · above 2,000 m
2 · Moderate
Alpine · 1,500 m–2,000 m
2 · Moderate
Sub Alpine · below 1,500 m
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired 2 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Weather conditions are forecast to deteriorate on Friday afternoon as northwest winds strengthen, accompanied by snowfall and poor visibility.

Increasing wind speeds and continued snow transport will elevate the likelihood of wind slab formation later in the day.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • All elevations
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1.5

    Northwest winds are forecast to increase on Friday with light snow expected by the afternoon. Pockets of wind slab may begin to form on southerly aspects later in the day. This problem will be increasing in size and likelihood as the storm is forecast to intensify over the next few days.

    If conditions start to change while you are out, you should treat any newly wind-loaded slopes with caution.

    With open creeks and rocky runouts, the consequences of taking a ride in even a small avalanche could be high.

Recent Avalanche Activity

There have been very few observations in the Aspiring region so far this winter.

A look around the central part of the region on Wednesday showed only a few avalanches had run naturally out of the last storm. The image shows old Debris on the Hesse glacier Size 2.5 from 0704 Storm

If you see any recent avalanche occurrences or have any relevant snowpack information or photos, you can share them via the Public Observations link on the NZAA home page.

Current Snowpack Conditions

On the 8th July, 5- 10 cm of new snow fell to around 900m. Gale south easterly winds during this storm stripped some exposed areas and loaded ridgetops and other terrain features. On the 5th, a notable 1-2cm rime crust formed above 1650m to the east of the region around Wanaka and may be present in some areas of the Aspiring region too. Below this, 30- 50 cm of settled snow from the 3rd of July overlies a solid ice layer. With short days and cold, clear nights, the current shallow 50- 70 cm snowpack will be faceting and should be monitored carefully once buried under the forecast snow.

With limited info, this structure may vary across the region.

Mountain Weather

Forecast for Friday

Mostly cloudy with isolated showers, becoming widespread in the evening, with snow flurries to 1100 metres from the afternoon.

Wind at 1000 metres Northerly 40 km/h developing in the afternoon.

Wind at 2000 metres Northerly 30 km/h developing in the morning, gradually rising to northerly gale 65 km/h in the evening.

Wind at 3000 metres Northwesterly 30 km/h developing in the morning, rising to northerly gale 70 km/h in the evening.

Freezing level 1300 metres.

Issued: 1:23pm Sat 11 Jul

Sliding Danger

Above around 1800m, firm icy conditions may be exposed after being stripped by the recent strong southerly winds.

Ice axe and crampons are recommended.

Forecast Confidence

Moderate

  • We are uncertain due to a limited number of field observations.
  • We are uncertain about forecast precipitation amounts.

New Zealand Avalanche Advisory (NZ Mountain Safety Council)

Regions covered