Avalanche forecast

Two Thumbs

New Zealand Avalanche Advisory
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Avalanche danger

High Alpine · above 1,800 m
3 · Considerable
Alpine · 1,200 m–1,800 m
2 · Moderate
Sub Alpine · below 1,200 m
1 · Low
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Highlights

The Considerable rating is for the north of the area, which has received a lot of new snow. Particularly above 2000m.

South of Captain's Peak and at lower elevations, the danger is Moderate.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • All elevations
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    2

    Gale northwesterly winds built windslabs on south and east terrain above 2000m on Friday. When the wind changed to the Southwest, the snow dropped to much lower levels and windslab formed on north and east facing terrain down to low elevations

    North of Captain's Peak and above 2000m the danger is Considerable.

    In the south of the range, nearer the ski areas the danger is Moderate.

    Visibility will likely be poor, so it will be hard to identify windloaded areas and manage the terrain.

    Even a small avalanche may be consequential with rocks or cliffs in the runout.

  • Storm Slabs

    • All elevations
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1

    Storm slabs are possible where more than about 15cm of new snow has accumulated. This is more likely at the northern end of the range.

    Storm slabs will be easier to trigger at higher elevations where the new snow landed on colder surfaces.

    Keep an eye on new snow amounts where you are and be prepared to adjust you're plans if needed.

  • Loose Dry

    • All elevations
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1

    Small loose dry avalanches are possible throughout the range on very steep slopes, particularly in sheltered areas.

    Although these are expected to be small, the consequences could be major depending on where you get carried.

Recent Avalanche Activity

No recent avalanches have been reported.

If you see any activity on the Two Thumb Range, please make a public observation. It really helps us to produce accurate forecasts.

Current Snowpack Conditions

Over 20cm of new snow fell in the north above 2100m on Friday with 20mm of rain soaking the snowpack at lower elevations. This precip amount tapered to almost nothing at the south end of the range.

A further 10cm of snow came in throughout the range on Friday afternoon.

10cm more is expected on Saturday to low levels south of Captain's Peak with 20cm further north.

Previous gale force wind from the northwest and southwest has left old crusts and rock exposed on ridges and upper elevations.

The snowpack north of Stag Saddle is not well understood, with no direct observations. It is possible that above about 2300m very deep snow has accumulated.

Mountain Weather

Rain easing to showers in the morning, clearing to fine in the evening. Snow to 800 metres 400 metres, affecting higher roads and passes.

Wind at 1000 metres

Light, southerly 30 km/h developing for a time in the morning and afternoon.

Wind at 2000 metres

Light but southwesterly 60 for a time in the morning

Freezing level

1200 metres, lowering to 600 metres in the evening.

Sliding Danger

While the new snow should go some way toward easing the sliding danger. Snowfall amounts are low particularly in the south. The old crusts may still be exposed and slick in plases.

Come prepared for a possible high sliding danger and assess each slope. Expect lots of rocks in the runouts.

Iceaxe and crampons are recommended.

Forecast Confidence

Moderate

  • We are uncertain about forecast snowfall amounts.

New Zealand Avalanche Advisory (NZ Mountain Safety Council)

Regions covered