Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 5th, 2026–Jan 6th, 2026

Alpine

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Alpine

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Alpine

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

North Rockies, East Kakwa, Kakwa, Pine Pass, Tumbler.

Strong winds are building new wind slabs in exposed areas, while a deeper persistent weak layer remains a concern.

Start with conservative terrain and watch for signs of instability.

Confidence

Moderate

Uncertainty is due to the fact that persistent slabs are particularly difficult to forecast.

Avalanche Summary

Jan 3

Numerous natural slab avalanches up to size 2 were observed in Pine Pass out of steep south-facing alpine areas.

Jan 2

Explosive control produced a few size 1.5 slabs in steep treeline terrain.

Dec 31

A very large naturally-triggered size 3.5 avalanche failed on the persistent weak layer.

Snowpack Summary

Recent snowfall has been blown into slabs in leeward alpine and treeline terrain by winds from variable directions.

A persistent weak layer formed in mid-December, consisting of a crust with weak facets, was the cause of a large natural avalanche cycle in the middle of last week. This layer is now buried 50 to 170 cm deep, depending on the aspect and wind loading.

In thin snowpack areas, faceted grains or depth hoar may exist at the base of the snowpack.

Weather Summary

Monday Night
Mostly cloudy. 5 to 10 cm of snow. 70 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -10 °C.

Tuesday
Mostly cloudy. 2 cm of snow. 40 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -8 °C.

Wednesday
Mix of sun and clouds. 3 cm of snow. 50 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -8 °C.

Thursday
Mix of sun and clouds. 5 to 10 cm of snow. 40 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -10 °C.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

Pay attention to the wind; once it starts to blow, sensitive wind slabs are likely to form.
Recent wind has varied in direction, so watch for wind slabs on all aspects.
Fresh snow rests on a problematic persistent slab, don't let good riding lure you into complacency.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.