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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 27th, 2022–Mar 28th, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Lizard-Flathead.

With no or minimal overnight freezing, warm temperatures, sunshine and light rain will continue to destabilize the snowpack on all aspects and all elevations. Thoughtful terrain choices and conservative decision-making are essential for safe travel in the backcountry. 

Confidence

Moderate - We have a good understanding of the snowpack structure and confidence in the weather forecast Uncertainty is due to the fact that cornice falls are particularly difficult to forecast.

Weather Forecast

An upper ridge builds in from the west and moves across the province on Monday. This will be associated with drying and clearing conditions before the next storm system moving in for Wednesday. 

SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with clear period. No precipitation. 15-20 km/h southwesterly winds. Low alpine temperature +5 C with freezing level around 2700 m.

MONDAY: A mix of sun and cloud with isolated showers. 1-3 mm. 25-40 km/h southwesterly winds. High alpine temperature +3 C with freezing level around 2500 m. 

TUESDAY: Sunny with cloudy periods. No precipitation. 15-30 km/h northeasterly winds. High alpine temperature 0 C with freezing level around 1800 m. 

WEDNESDAY: A mix of sun and cloud with increasing cloudiness in the afternoon. No precipitation. 20-30 km/h southwesterly winds. High alpine temperature 0 C with freezing level around 1800 m.

Avalanche Summary

On Saturday, a few natural and triggered small loose wet avalanches were observed on steep south facing slopes.

Remember that a lack of reported avalanches does not necessarily mean that there is a lack of avalanche activity. If you are out in the backcountry, and have photos, conditions updates, or even just good vibes to share, consider making a post on the Mountain Information Network. 

Snowpack Summary

The upper snowpack is going through a diurnal melt freeze cycle with minimal overnight refreezing. Refrozen crust on all aspects up to 2000 m and on solar aspects in the alpine. Surfaces are softening in the afternoon at all elevations, and on steep, sunny slopes. Recent warm temperatures, sun, and rain have made the top 10-30 cm of the snowpack moist. At very low elevations, the snowpack may be wet and isothermal, depending on overnight freezing levels. 

The mid and lower snowpack are generally strong and well bonded.

Terrain and Travel

  • Avoid steep slopes when air temperatures are warm, it is raining, or solar radiation is strong.
  • Cornices become weak with daytime heating or solar exposure.

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.