Avalanche forecast

South Rockies

Feb 25 – 26, 2019Avalanche Canada
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Avalanche danger

Wed
Thu
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

Expect to find wind slabs and wind-affected surfaces as you gain elevation. Buried surface hoar at lower elevations remains a concern and still has the potential for human triggering.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2
    Northwest winds have smoothed alpine start zones and reverse loaded lee terrain. As winds shift to a more northeasterly flow, wind slabs may be found on a variety of aspects and cross-loaded features.

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely - Possible
    Size
    1.5–2.5
    A weak layer of surface hoar is buried around 50 to 80 cm, which is best preserved in shaded and sheltered areas between 1600 m and 1900 m.

Confidence

Moderate - Wind effect is extremely variable

Weather Forecast

MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with clear periods.  Alpine temperatures near -26C. Ridgetop winds light from the east-northeast.TUESDAY: Sunny with cloudy periods. Alpine temperatures near -18C. Ridgetop winds light from the northeast.WEDNESDAY: Sunny with cloudy periods. Alpine temperatures near -15C. Ridgetop winds light from the east-northeast.THURSDAY: Mix of sun and cloud with isolated flurries, trace to 5 cm. Alpine temperatures near -14C. Ridgetop winds light from the east-southeast.

Avalanche Summary

Several large (size 2) wind slabs were triggered with explosives control in the Castle area on Friday after a bout of strong to extreme southwest winds. Slab depths ranged from 20-60 cm.A MIN report from Grizzly Peak in the Elkford area on Thursday describes a persistent slab failing on the mid-January persistent weak layer as a ski touring group ascended a steeper slope near treeline. See the report here.On Thursday in adjacent Waterton National Park a recent large (size 2) deep persistent slab avalanche was observed. It occurred on a steep feature below treeline that was noted for its thin snowpack and for being reverse loaded by winds.

Snowpack Summary

Moderate winds are smoothing alpine start zones and reverse loading lee terrain. Wind slabs exist in open, exposed areas at higher elevations and may be found on all aspects due to variable wind directions.Below this stack of wind-affected surfaces, a weak layer of surface hoar or faceted grains buried mid-January is down 50 to 80 cm. It is found on shaded and sheltered slopes and is most prominent between 1600 m and 1900 m but has been found up to 2200 m. It may overly a melt-freeze crust on south aspects. Recent avalanche reports and snowpack test results suggest that this layer remains reactive to human triggers.The bottom half of the snowpack is composed of weak and sugary faceted snow crystals.

Regions covered