It's hard to have confidence traveling in the backcountry right now as sustained warm temperatures stress the snowpack. Very conservative terrain choices are critical!
Summary
Confidence
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Weather Forecast
TUESDAY: Increasing cloud throughout the day, moderate to strong southwest winds, mild inversion with alpine temperatures hovering around 0 C.WEDNESDAY: Light flurries in the afternoon, strong southwest winds, alpine temperatures around - 2 C.THURSDAY: Light flurries with up to 5 cm of new snow, strong southwest winds, alpine temperatures around -5 C.
Avalanche Summary
Limited reports suggest wet loose avalanches have been running on steep solar aspects. Small thin wind slabs (size 1-1.5) have also been reported.
Snowpack Summary
An unstable weak layer from mid-December (predominantly feathery surface hoar crystals and/or a sun crust) is found at treeline and below treeline elevations. Slabs can fail easily on this layer, either naturally or with the weight of a person or machine. Forecasted warm air temperatures could make this layer even easier to trigger.The snowpack is variable across the region, but persistent slabs are generally a widespread problem. Wind slab and storm slab distribution will be more variable. New wind slabs can be found in parts of the region due to recent southwest winds. Windward alpine slopes may be scoured; and variable wind slabs are found at treeline and alpine elevations. New snow is likely to fail as storm slabs and/or loose avalanches.Deeper in the snowpack, an early-season rain crust and sugary facets exist. An avalanche in motion could step down to these deeper layers, creating a large and destructive avalanche. Overall snowpack depths are variable across the region. It is generally shallower in the east.
simonhorton,
Avalanche Canada
