Avalanche forecast

Salt River and Wyoming Ranges

Bridger-Teton Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sat
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

Continued above-freezing temperatures and periods of sun will make wet slab avalanches possible on steep solar terrain. Watch for unsupportable snow, and know that heat and water remain in the snowpack, even if the surface is frozen. Evaluate snow, weather, and terrain carefully today. Continue to give cornices a wide buffer. 

Avalanche problems

  • Wet Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Continued warm temperatures and periods of sunshine will cause wet slabs to remain a concern today. Over the past week, the snowpack has absorbed large amount of daytime heat with short periods of overnight sub-freezing temperatures. The potential for water moving through the snowpack and pooling on crusts remains. You're most likely to encounter wet slabs on steep solar aspects around rocky terrain where heat and water are easily directed into the snowpack. 

    Managing this problem can be difficult. Pay attention for signs of warming. If you've found a unsuportable, mushy snowpack consider staying off of and away from large or consequential avalanche paths with similar characteristics. Don't let a refrozen crust catch you off guard either, remember that water and heat remain deeper in the snowpack. Today's partial cloud coverage, and slightly cooler temperatures will continue trending this avalanche problem towards unlikely. Until then, colder snow can be found on north facing slopes. 

    (3/19/2024) This avalanche was triggered by a snowcat pushing snow onto a ski slope Tuesday afternoon in the Teton forecast zone. 

  • Deep Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    2–3

    Weak snow that formed in December persists at the base of the snowpack across the entire Greys River forecast zone. However, the thickness of the hard slabs that overlay this weak snow varies based on geographic location. In the middle and upper elevations of the Salt, Snake River, and deeper portions of the Wyoming Range, these weak layers are buried 3-5+ feet deep making it difficult for a human to impact them. In shallow parts of the forecast zone, such as the far eastern side of the Wyoming Range, these slabs are only 2-3 feet thick making it possible for humans to trigger avalanches on the buried weak layers. Shallow, rocky, and unsupported terrain on the north half of the compass is where this problem has been most active. Keep in mind that a large trigger such as a cornice fall could trigger one of these very large avalanches, even in areas where the snowpack is deep.

    Careful snowpack evaluation is required in the Greys River zone due to variable snow depths. Probing or digging can provide useful information about the depth of the weak layers preserved at the bottom of the snowpack. This evaluation is critical if you are riding in a shallow part of the zone. A total snow depth of less than 6 feet (200cm) is a red flag.

    The last reported human-triggered avalanche involving deeply buried weak layers occurred on March 9th on the far eastern side of the Wyoming Range.

    (3/19/2024)

    Large avalanche near Gunsight Pass that failed during early March storm on deep persistent weak layers. 10,200' NE aspect.

    Photo: Alex Drinkard

Avalanche Discussion

Moving into the weekend, a storm is expected to begin Saturday afternoon bringing new snow, wind, and colder temperatures. Before getting there, we must remain conscious of wet avalanche problems. Today we are seeing a decrease in temperatures compared to previous days, but many areas of the forecast zone are expected to reach above-freezing temperatures. These temperatures combined with partly sunny skies will cause wet avalanches to remain a concern. Additionally, free water in the snowpack can have a "lag" effect, meaning it takes time to move through the snowpack and drain or re-freeze. We are on the tail end of a week with sunshine and warm temperatures. Water is still present in our snowpack and recent observations from the Tetons have proved that we should stay alert until we stop seeing signs of pooling water. 

Wet slab avalanches are difficult for anyone to forecast. Many factors differentiate the possibility of a wet slab avalanche including energy balance, snowpack structure, geographic region, timing, and more. Ultimately, it's a difficult problem to predict, and one that we shouldn't try to outsmart. The best way to manage this problem is avoidance. Solar aspects have been soaking up heat for the past seven days. Water moving through the snowpack, snow falling from a tree, or a cornice collapse could cause these slopes to slide at any time. If you go out into the mountains today, remember that water and heat remain deeper in the snowpack, despite what may be an icy surface right beneath your feet. 

Fortunately, northern slopes harbor cold soft snow down to the low elevations. You'll find your best ride quality on these slopes today. No matter what you decide to do today, if you have some free time, public avalanche forecasting operations like ours would love your help improving our product. Please take some time to complete the survey below. Similar studies are responsible for what is widely regarded as improvements in public forecast products like the Bridger-Teton Avalanche Center platform. With 20 minutes of your time, we could further improve our avalanche forecasting product. 

Invitation to participate in the survey: 

The Colorado Avalanche Information Center, the Avalanche Research Program at Simon Fraser University, and the U.S. National Science Foundation National Center for Atmospheric Research are researching how skiers, snowmobilers, snowshoers, ice climbers, and anyone else who travels in the backcountry interpret avalanche forecast information. Part of this research includes a specific survey to better understand how useful avalanche forecast information is for trip planning. 

Completing this survey will take approximately 20 minutes. Thank you for sharing your feedback to help us improve avalanche risk communication. 

Link to the survey: 

https://caic2024.avalancheresearch.ca/en/

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