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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 16th, 2015–Feb 17th, 2015

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Kootenay Boundary.

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Confidence

Good

Weather Forecast

Sunny and dry for Tuesday and Wednesday with some cloud cover expected for Thursday. Freezing levels around 1600 m for Tuesday before possible above freezing alpine temperatures on Wednesday; however, cooler temperatures expected again for Thursday, and freezing levels expected to drop to valley bottoms overnight throughout the forecast period. Generally light northwesterly winds are expected with a brief shift to southwesterlies as the clouds roll in on Wednesday afternoon.

Avalanche Summary

Reports from Sunday are limited to small wet loose snow activity on steep sun-exposed slopes.

Snowpack Summary

The surface snow is undergoing a melt-freeze cycle with a strong frozen state in the morning followed by a weak melted state in the afternoon, especially on sun-exposed slopes. Not only does surface snow become weak with daytime warming, but slabs lose stiffness making deeper weaknesses more susceptible to triggering. The crust buried at the beginning of February is down around 40-60 cm and generally well-bonded; however, this bond is much weaker where surface hoar overlies the crust. Below that, recent snowpack tests gave moderate to hard but sudden collapse results on the mid-January surface hoar where it was found down 70-80 cm on a northeast facing treeline slope. This persistent weakness is generally down a metre or more. The mid-December crust/facet/surface hoar weakness may be persisting in the mid to lower snowpack at higher elevations.

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.