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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 1st, 2022–Jan 2nd, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Jasper.

Facetting has refreshed the available snow for transport. Expecting a cold, weak new interface in lee features at all elevations. Stay away from steep terrain traps.

Weather Forecast

Sunday: Mainly cloudy with scattered flurries. 5-10 cm. Temp: High -13 °C. Wind SW: 15 km/h.

Monday: Mainly cloudy with scattered flurries. 4 cm. Temp: Low -18 °C, High -10 °C. Wind S: 10-30 km/h.

Tuesday: Mainly cloudy with isolated flurries. Trace over the day. Temp: Low -28 °C, High -16 °C. Light ridge wind.

Snowpack Summary

Cold temps are penetrating deep into the upper snowpack, promoting faceting. Wind slab pockets are present on all aspects, tree line and above. The mid-pack is supportive with the Dec 1st interface down ~40 cm in most locations. Basal faceting continues below the Nov 5 crust potentially amplifying the deep persistent slab problem.

Avalanche Summary

Friday's Maligne patrol noted several loose dry up to size 1.5 running far on a previous hard surface. Avalanche Control on Medicine Slabs (steep, open treeline) produced several loose dry, and fast moving facet avalanches to the road.

Confidence

Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain on Sunday

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Dry

Loose Dry avalanches are the release of dry unconsolidated snow and typically occur within layers of soft snow near the surface of the snowpack. These avalanches start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-dry avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.