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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 2nd, 2025–Jan 3rd, 2025

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Purcells, Crawford, Dogtooth, East Purcell, Moyie, St. Mary, West Purcell.

Uncertainty remains around the reactivity of deeper weak layers.

Avoid rocky, thin, and shallow areas where triggering remains possible.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

Explosive testing on both Tuesday and Wednesday triggered many small ( size 1 to 1.5 ) windslab avalanches. These all occurred between 2000 and 2500 meters

A rider accidentally triggered a small avalanche from a shallow alpine slope on Repeater Peak near Golden, getting carried through cliff features and a gully. The failure plane is suspected to be the persistent weak layer down 60 cm. Read the MIN report here.

Snowpack Summary

In sheltered areas, 20 to 75 cm of settling snow can be found. The previous southwest wind has redistributed this snow, forming deeper deposits on leeward slopes at higher elevations. Surface snow consists of surface hoar crystals and facets on northerly slopes and a thin sun breakable crust on southerly slopes.

A weak layer buried in early December is now about 40 to 90 cm below the surface. This layer varies between weak surface hoar or facetted crystals on shaded slopes and a sun crust with facets on south-facing slopes.

The base of the snowpack is made of a thick crust and facets in many areas.

Weather Summary

Thursday Night

Partly cloudy with isolated flurries 1 cm . 5 to 10 km/h south ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -14 °C.

Friday

Partly cloudy, with light snowfall 1 to 5 cm. 5 to 10 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -12 °C.

Saturday

Partly cloudy, with light snowfall 1 to 5 cm. 5 to 10 km/h south ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -5 °C.

Sunday

Partly cloudy, with light snowfall 1 to 5 cm. 5 to 10 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -5 °C.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Uncertainty is best managed through conservative terrain choices.
  • Avoid shallow, rocky areas where the snowpack transitions from thick to thin.
  • Loose avalanches may step down to deeper layers, resulting in larger avalanches.
  • Pay attention to the wind; once it starts to blow, sensitive wind slabs are likely to form.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.