Avalanche Forecast

Poor - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather is uncertain

Saturday: 5-10 cm new snow is expected, with extreme winds gusting from the SW to 110 km/h. Freezing levels around 1800 m. Sunday: Flurries or light snowfall. Winds strong southwesterly. Freezing levels around 1300 m. Monday: Further light precipitation with strong winds and freezing levels around 1300 m.

On Friday, a natural avalanche cycle occurred up to size 3 in response to very warm temperatures and continued loading of exposed start zones by high winds. Over the past few days, there have been several reports from in or near the region of near misses, including a snowmobiler who triggered an avalanche and was buried for around 30 minutes, remote-triggered avalanches, and slab avalanches running into unusually low-angled terrain.

Intense warming on Thursday and Friday was making the surface snow moist in many places. 20 to 50 cm of recent storm snow has been reported from different parts of this region. Winds from the SW and the NW have set up wind slabs in lee areas in exposed terrain. The mid February surface hoar layer is now down between 40 & 100cm and is more prevalent in the west and south of the region, particularly in the Flathead. Recent snowpack tests as well as a rider-triggered avalanche on this weak layer indicate that it still has the potential to be triggered in many areas and if it is triggered, a large avalanche could result. Remote-triggering, triggering from below and triggering on low-angled terrain are also concerns. Lingering concern remains for basal facets, particularly in shallower snowpack areas with steep, rocky start zones. Cornices are becoming well developed in response to recent winds and are likely starting to droop with the warm temperatures.