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Avalanche Forecast

Mar 13th, 2021–Mar 14th, 2021
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be low
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Jasper.

Warm temperatures and high solar input are expected to taper off with incoming cloudy weather. Watch closely for any temperature spikes during the day as freezing levels are uncertain.

Weather Forecast

Sunday: Mainly cloudy. Precipitation: Nil. Alpine temperature: High -3 °C. Ridge wind southwest: 15-35 km/h. Freezing level: 1900 metres.Monday: Cloudy with sunny periods.  Precipitation: Nil. Alpine temperature: Low -7 °C, High -2 °C. Ridge wind west: 10-25 km/h. Freezing level: 1900 metres.

Snowpack Summary

High solar input in the last few days created crusts and moist snow on solar aspects at TL and below. Wind scoured ALP features lost most of its snow to the lees of the mountains.  The mid pack is supportive in deep areas but weak in shallow spots where it fails on buried facet layers in test results.

Avalanche Summary

No patrol on Saturday.

Confidence

The weather pattern is stable

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Originally formed on weak Feb 20th facets. It is prudent to keep this on your radar with warmer temperatures as reactivity may increase. Cornices will have the potential to fail and trigger slabs below.

  • Pay attention to overhead hazards like cornices which could trigger slabs.
  • If triggered the wind slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, North West.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 2.5

Loose Wet

Even with clouds in the forecast, green house effect and higher freezing levels have the potential to  warm up the snowpack enough for the wet loose to be an issue. Best time to travel is early while its frozen solid.

  • Minimize exposure to steep, sun exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong.

Aspects: South, South West, West.

Elevations: Treeline, Below Treeline.

Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 1.5

Deep Persistent Slabs

Caution in thin facetted snowpack areas where triggering is more likely. This is a low probability but high consequence problem.

  • Avoid shallow snowpack areas where triggering is more likely.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size: 1.5 - 3