Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the track & intensity of the incoming weather system.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with flurries bringing 5-10 cm of snow, strong wind from the southwest, treeline temperatures around -10 C.

THURSDAY: Snowfall continues with another with 10-15 cm, strong wind from the west, treeline temperatures warming to -5 C with freezing level reaching 1000 m.

FRIDAY: Cloudy with isolated flurries bringing trace amounts of snow, moderate wind from the west, treeline temperatures around -4 C.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny, moderate wind from the northwest, warming temperatures with a possible inversion developing above freezing temperatures between 1800 and 2000 m.

A widespread natural avalanche cycle occurred on Monday with numerous size 2-3 storm and wind slabs observed in alpine terrain west of Valemount.

During last week's warm storm, a few size 2-2.5 deep persistent slab avalanche were observed near Blue River, as this corner of the region appears to have a similar lingering problem to the neighbouring North Columbia region.

Expect 15 to 30 cm of new snow on Thursday. This is burying heavily wind affected snow at upper elevations and 20-50 cm snow from the past week. A few isolated surface hoar layers have been observed in the top 50 cm, as well as a thin breakable crust that extends up to 1800 m, but we have not seen avalanche activity on these layers.

The lower snowpack is strong and settled in most parts of the region, except the southernmost part of the region around Blue River where there is a deeply buried crust/facet layer that could be exhibiting similar behaviour to the deep persistent slab problem in the neighbouring North Columbia region. This layer is most prevalent at below treeline elevations and has been reactive to heavy triggers like smaller wind slab avalanches that step down to this layer.

• Watch for newly formed and reactive wind slabs as you transition into wind affected terrain.
• Use ridges or ribs to avoid areas of wind loaded snow.
• Closely monitor how the new snow is bonding to the old surface.
• Dial back your terrain choices if you are seeing more than 20 cm of new snow.