Avalanche Forecast

Low - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

There is currently a lot of model uncertainty as to how the storm system is going to progress over the next few days. It currently looks like a weak storm pulse is going to bring around 5-10cm of new snow Sunday overnight and early Monday. Freezing levels should remain below 500m and alpine winds are expected to be moderate to strong from the SW. Light flurries may continue Monday afternoon but sunny breaks are also possible. A second storm pulse is being forecast for Monday night into Tuesday morning and could bring another 5-10cm. Sunny breaks are possible again on Tuesday afternoon. Freezing levels are expected to stay around valley bottom and alpine winds should ease to light from the south as the storm exits on Tuesday. One model is currently showing mostly dry conditions for Wednesday while another shows ongoing light snowfall. With the current weather uncertainty, be sure to watch the weather forecast closely over the next few days. The Mountain Weather Forecast at www.avalanche.ca/weather is published each morning at 4am so check it out before you head out for the day.

Over the weekend, avalanche activity has been limited to small loose snow avalanches running in the upper snowpack. Sun exposed slopes likely saw the most avalanche activity but reports suggest that sluffing occurred on all aspects.

The last few days of clear skies, sun, and warm air at higher elevations have promoted settlement in the snowpack and have helped to strengthen many near-surface instabilities. More recent cooling has formed a melt-freeze crust on solar aspects. Recent moderate southeast winds have created wind slabs in exposed terrain at treeline and in the alpine while faceted snow and very large surface hoar are being reported on the snow surface in sheltered areas. About 50 cm below the surface, the mid-December interface can be found which consists of surface hoar and/or a sun crust. About 20 cm below that, the early December rain crust can also be found. Both these layers are thought to be bonding well and are no longer reacting to snowpack tests except in isolated locations. The snowpack below these layers is generally strong and well-settled.