Daytime warming and solar radiation will be driving the avalanche danger over the next few days. Watch for conditions that change with aspect, elevation and time of day.
Summary
Confidence
Fair - Due to the number of field observations
Weather Forecast
Generally sunny skies are expected for the forecast period as a dry ridge sets up over the region. Increased cloud and light snowfall is possible on Friday evening. Ridgetop winds should remain light for Wednesday and Thursday, and then become strong from the southwest on Friday night. Daytime freezing levels should hover around 2000m.
Avalanche Summary
Observations are becoming more limited as we enter into spring. If you're out in the mountains, please consider posting your observations to our webpage using the Mountain Information Network. With freezing levels rising and lots of sun expected on Wednesday, lots of natural sluffing is expected from steep sun-exposed slopes, especially in areas where cold, dry snow is exposed to solar radiation for the first time. Cornices will become weaker than they have been for the last week and may fail naturally. Wind slabs in the alpine may be sensitive to human-triggering. Reverse loading may have occurred and wind slabs should be expected on a variety of aspects.
Snowpack Summary
Melt-freeze surface conditions exist on sun-exposed slopes. On shaded slopes, 10-30cm of recent snow overlies a thick supportive melt-freeze crust. At higher elevations these accumulations have been blown around by variable winds and thin wind slabs may exist on a variety of aspects. The mid-March crust/facet complex is buried around 50cm below the surface. This layer is generally considered dormant, although it could be reactivated in isolated terrain by warm temperatures forecast for the week. The mid and lower snowpack are strong and well settled.
Problems
Loose Wet
Over the next few days, watch for pushy loose wet avalanche activity on sun exposed slopes. Loose wet avalanches are most likely in areas where dry snow is exposed to solar radiation for the first time.
Minimize exposure to sun exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong.>Be cautious of sluffing in steep terrain.>Be alert to conditions that change with aspect, elevation and time of day.>
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Cornices
Large cornices at ridgetop may fail under the weight of a human-trigger. As spring conditions evolve, remember that destructive cornice falls become more likely during periods of warming and solar radiation.
Give cornices a wide berth when traveling on or below ridges. Remember that cornices become weak with daytime heating.>
Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.
Elevations: Alpine.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Valid until: Apr 8th, 2015 2:00PM
