Avalanche Forecast

Poor - Due to the number of field observations

Mostly clear overnight with light winds and freezing levels remaining above 2400 metres. Mostly sunny with light winds and freezing levels rising up to about 3000 metres on Monday. Alpine temperatures are expected to be around +10 celcius. The ridge of high pressure is expected to break down sometime Tuesday allowing a weak system to move onto the south coast.

On Saturday the overnight crust held up for most of the day resulting in only small loose wet avalanches and pin-wheeling. On Friday, numerous solar triggered natural loose wet avalanches up to size 2 were reported. One natural wet slab size 1.5 was reported that ran to the top of the run-out zone. A natural cornice failure size 1 also occurred and did not pull a slab from the slope below. With warming and periods of intense solar radiation avalanche danger will rise, solar triggered slab avalanches, failing cornices and loose wet avalanches will likely continue. Be aware of rapidly changing conditions.

Upper elevations have received 25-40 cm of recent storm snow. The new snow sits on the April 10th persistent weak interface including crusts, facets and spotty surface hoar on high, northerly aspects. This interface has shown a poor bond and has been reactive naturally and to human triggers. Moderate to strong south west winds have redistributed the recent storm snow into wind slabs on leeward slopes and behind terrain features. The mid-March pwl is down 100-150 cm and has been producing hard, resistant results in snowpack tests and has been dormant. There is a low probability of triggering this layer, however; if it is triggered the consequence would be high. Large looming cornices may become weak with solar radiation and daytime warming. If a cornice fails it could trigger a large avalanche from the slope below.