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Avalanche Forecast

Jan 1st, 2017–Jan 2nd, 2017
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Sea To Sky.

Cold north winds have been blowing. Watch for fresh wind slabs, particularly on southerly aspects.

Confidence

High -

Weather Forecast

MONDAY: Dry and sunny. Winds northeasterly 20-30 km/h at ridgetop. Ridgetop temperatures around -15C. TUESDAY: Dry and sunny. Winds northeasterly 20-30 km/h. Temperatures around -16C. WEDNESDAY: Dry and sunny. Winds northeasterly 40-60 km/h. Temperatures around -12C.

Avalanche Summary

Small wind slab avalanches could be triggered in recently loaded pockets up to size 1.

Snowpack Summary

The critical part of snowpack analysis under current conditions is figuring out how the wind is redistributing snow into wind slabs. Extreme northerly winds have been reported, which will be "reverse loading" wind onto slopes that were previously scoured. I suspect the cold will temper the reactivity of wind slabs on moderate slopes; however, on steep, aggressive terrain, particularly on south-facing slopes in the sun, wind slabs will definitely be in play. Between Monday and Friday last week, 70-100 cm of storm snow accumulated in the region. Below the new snow from this week lies the Boxing Day interface which consisted of wind affected surfaces, faceted (sugary) snow, or surface hoar. Recent observations suggest the overlying snow is generally well bonded to this interface. The mid-December interface is now down 100-150 cm and is generally considered to be stable in this region. Snowpack layers below this are well bonded.

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Fresh wind slabs have formed on mainly southwest to east aspect slopes in response to extreme northerly winds. Slabs found on south aspect slopes could become more unstable when the sun is out.
Minimize exposure to steep, sun exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong.Carefully evaluate steep lines for wind slabUse safe ski cutting techniques before entering steep lines.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 2