Avalanche Forecast
Issued: Jan 3rd, 2021 4:00PM
The alpine rating is , the treeline rating is , and the below treeline rating is Known problems include Wind Slabs and Persistent Slabs.
JSmith,
Avalanche Canada
Strong southwesterly winds continue to form fresh wind slabs reactive to human triggers on lee features at treeline and above. Wind slabs in motion may step-down to deeper weak layers, resulting in large avalanches.
Summary
Confidence
Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the limited number of field observations.
Weather Forecast
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SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with isolated flurries; 0-3 cm. / Strong, south ridgetop wind / alpine low temperature -12 / Freezing level valley bottom.
MONDAY: Cloudy with flurries; 3-5 cm. / Strong, south ridgetop wind / alpine high temperature -6 / Freezing level valley bottom.
TUESDAY: Cloudy with isolated flurries; 0-3 cm. / Strong, south ridgetop wind / alpine high temperature -5 / Freezing level 1000 m.
WEDNESDAY: Snow; 5-10 cm. / Strong, southwest ridgetop wind / alpine high temperature -4 / Freezing level 1400 m.
Avalanche Summary
New snow and wind may continue to overload a weak layer of surface hoar that has been observed in the areas surrounding Valemount. Large human triggered avalanches are likely.
Data in this region is sparse. Please submit your observations to the Mountain Information Network.Â
Snowpack Summary
Another layer of large surface hoar was reported in the areas surrounding Valemount and has now been buried by 15-20 cm. of recent snow.Â
An active weak layer is now down 40 to 80 cm. The distribution of this layer is variable. In some areas it's surface hoar and/or a crust; in others this layer may be difficult to find if it exists at all. Recent human triggered avalanches have been reported on this layer and have been most numerous in the areas surrounding Valemount.
There is a prominent crust near the base of the snowpack. This crust likely has weak facets above and/or below it. There have been no recent avalanches reported on this layer, but would be most likely to trigger in steep, shallow, rocky terrain, with a thin to thick snowpack.
Terrain and Travel
- Watch for newly formed and reactive wind slabs as you transition into wind affected terrain.
- Be careful as you transition into wind affected terrain.
- Be aware of the potential for large avalanches due to the presence of buried surface hoar.
- Surface hoar distribution is highly variable. Avoid generalizing your observations.
- Avoid open slopes and convex rolls at and below treeline where buried surface hoar may be preserved.
Problems
Wind Slabs
Strong southwesterly winds continue to form fresh wind slabs reactive to human triggers on lee features at treeline and above. Wind slabs in motion may step-down to deeper weak layers, resulting in large avalanches.
Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, North West.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Persistent Slabs
Concern remains for a very weak layer of surface hoar down 50-70 cm. This layer has been found to be most prevalent at treeline and below in the areas surrounding Valemount.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Treeline, Below Treeline.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Valid until: Jan 4th, 2021 4:00PM
