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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Dec 15th, 2019–Dec 16th, 2019
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Kootenay Boundary.

There are two weak layers in the top 60 cm of the snowpack that could be reactive to human triggers, especially in wind affected and shallow snowpack areas. The deeper layer may be difficult to assess and predict, so conservative terrain selection is recommended.

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the fact that persistent slabs are particularly difficult to forecast.

Weather Forecast

SUNDAY NIGHT - Cloudy with clear periods / northwest wind, 20-30 km/h / alpine low temperature near -10

MONDAY - Mainly cloudy with isolated flurries / southwest wind, 20-40 km/h / alpine high temperature near -6

TUESDAY - Cloudy with sunny periods and isolated flurries / southwest wind, 20-40 km/h / alpine high temperature near -5

WEDNESDAY - Mainly cloudy with isolated flurries / southwest wind, 20-30 km/h / alpine high temperature near -5

Avalanche Summary

There were reports of a size 1 human triggered avalanche, and natural size 2 avalanche on Saturday that released on the persistent weak layer that is down about 50-60 cm

There were a few reports of explosives triggered storm slab avalanches up to size 2 on Friday.

There were a few human and explosives triggered storm slab avalanches size 1-2 reported on Thursday.

Check out this MIN report of an avalanche in the Big White backcountry on Thursday.

Snowpack Summary

15-30 cm of recent fresh snow sits on a weak layer of feathery surface hoar in many areas, and on a crust on steep south facing slopes. This layer may be reactive to human triggers, especially in wind affected areas.

There is also a persistent weak layer down approximately 50-60 cm that mainly consists of a crust with sugary faceted snow on top of it. This layer may be reactive to human triggers, especially in shallow, rocky areas.

Avalanche Problems

Persistent Slabs

There are two prominent weak layers in the snowpack right now that are of concern. The first is a layer of surface hoar that was buried last week, and is approximately 20-30 cm deep. The second is a persistent weak layer that is now buried 50-60 cm. Both layers could potentially be reactive to human triggers. Be aware that if the shallower layer is triggered, it may step down to the deeper layer, resulting in a large avalanche.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 2