Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Due to the number of field observations

TONIGHT: Trace snowfall amounts, moderate north east winds, alpine temperatures -17 C.THURSDAY: Mix of sun and cloud, east winds switching to south west mid-day, alpine temperatures -12 C.FRIDAY: Increasing cloud, light snow possible, west winds, alpine temperatures -10 C.SATURDAY: Light accumulations possible, light east winds, alpine temperatures -11 C.

There was evidence of many small to large (size 1 to 2) natural wind slab avalanches in the region over the last three days. More recently ski cutting has produced whumpfing, cracking and small avalanches over convex features at various elevations. Sled cuts were still producing slab avalanches at lower elevations on cut banks and cutblock type terrain on the last South Rockies Field Team trip to this region. There was also evidence of 40 cm slabs scrubbing to ground in very shallow snowpack areas.

Recent incremental snowfalls total 20-30 cm, with the highest amounts in the south of the region. The snow likely has slab properties where it has been wind affected at higher elevations and open areas. It could be more loose in sheltered areas.The mid-January layer weak layer is buried around 50 to 80 cm. The weak layer is surface hoar on shaded and sheltered slopes and is most prominent between 1600 m and 1900 m but has been found up to 2200 m. In some areas the weak layer is made up of sugary faceted crystals over old wind slab or a crust. Snowpack test results suggest that this layer may still be triggered by humans.The middle of the snowpack is generally consolidated. The bottom half of the snowpack is unconsolidated and composed of weak and sugary faceted grains. There is potential for shallower avalanches to step down to these deeper weak layers.