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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 23rd, 2021–Mar 24th, 2021

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Lizard-Flathead.

Strong wind forecast overnight will likely transport recent snow into fresh, reactive wind slabs at upper elevations. Watch for signs of instability like shooting cracks in wind loaded lee features such as beneath ridge crests and roll-overs.

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the speed, direction, or duration of the wind and its effect on the snowpack.

Weather Forecast

Tuesday night: Increasing cloud. Moderate westerly wind, strong above 2000 m. Alpine high temperatures around -5. Freezing level 1200 m.

Wednesday: Up to 5 cm new snow. Moderate westerly wind. Alpine high temperatures around -5. Freezing level 1500 m.

Thursday: Mix of sun and cloud. Light wind. Alpine high temperatures around -4. Freezing level 1700 m.

Friday: Mix of sun and cloud. Moderate westerly wind. Alpine high temperatures around -1. Freezing level 2000 m.

Avalanche Summary

Storm slabs were reactive to explosives on Monday, size 1-1.5. With strong overnight winds forecast, more slab activity is anticipated for Tuesday.

A large (size 2) glide slab occurred overnight Friday on a lower elevation slope on Mt. Fernie. It may have been coaxed into action by overnight rainfall. This serves as a great reminder to avoid slopes with glide cracks on them at all times. They are inherently unstable and can release at any time.

Snowpack Summary

20-30 cm of new snow has been accumulating incrementally over recent days on top of wind affected surfaces at higher elevations and over a mix of refrozen or still wet snow at treeline and below. This new snow is most likely being blown around by strong winds forecast overnight Tuesday and into Monday morning, forming fresh wind slabs in lee terrain features at upper elevations. The snowpack is otherwise well settled and strong.

Terrain and Travel

  • Be alert to conditions that change with elevation.
  • Watch for wind-loaded pockets especially around ridgecrest and in extreme terrain.
  • Small avalanches can have serious consequences in extreme terrain. Carefully evaluate your line for wind slab hazard before you commit to it.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.