Avalanche forecast

Jasper

Apr 1 – 2, 2017Parks Canada
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Archived · expired 10 years ago

Avalanche danger

Mon
Tue
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

Resist the temptation to travel on big slopes that have not yet avalanched.  Weaknesses deep in the snowpack can be triggered from shallow snowpack areas and have the potential to run full path. 

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–3
    New windslab formed by recent SW winds could be reactive and if triggered, could step down to the deep persistent slab.

  • Cornices

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–3
    Cornice failure is hard to predict but is more likely with inputs like solar radiation and wind-loading.

  • Deep Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–3
    This problem is unlikely to disappear.  It can be triggered by large loads like cornice fall or windslab failure.  Human triggering is most likely from shallow spots or on steep unsupported slopes.

Confidence

Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain on Tuesday

Weather Forecast

10 cm of snow expected Saturday night with easing SW winds.  Freezing level falling to 1300 m.  Cloudy spring-like weather Sunday and Monday.  Sun and warm temperatures are predicting starting on Tuesday.

Snowpack Summary

Recent large cornices failures have triggered the deep persistent slab creating size 3 avalanches. Previous S-M SW winds formed windslab on lee aspects. A thick and strengthening mid-pack is bridging basal weakness. The lower snowpack is weak with depth hoar, Nov rain crust and basal facets. Isothermal conditions below tree-line on solar aspects.

Avalanche Summary

Recent cornice and windslab failures have triggered the deep persistent slab creating large full path avalanches that are traveling well into historic run-outs. Loose wet avalanches have been occurring on steeper south and west aspect below tree-line.

Regions covered