Confidence
Fair - Due to limited field observations
Weather Forecast
A series of weak short waves move over the southern half of the province this weekend bringing high cloud and very little in the way of precipitation. Temps remain mild, just a few degrees below 0 at 1500m. Winds look to be meek, whispering out of the NW @ 5 - 15 km/h. This pattern continues through the weekend. The models show a bit of a change next Wednesday, but forecast details that far out are sketchy at best.
Avalanche Summary
Throughout the weekend numerous highly destructive persistent deep slab avalanches involving basal facets and depth hoar occurred in the alpine and ran to valley bottoms (check out the Avalanche Image Gallery under the Library tab for some photos). These highly destructive avalanches remain possible with heavy triggers, such as airborne sled impacts and cornice falls, in thin areas on variable slopes peppered with tree's and rocks.
Snowpack Summary
In Elk Valley North and the Crowsnest, the average snowpack depth at treeline is 150 cms. In Elk Valley S and the Flathead the snowpack depth is closer to 2 m. Surface hoar is continuing to develop on sheltered slopes at all elevations combined with near-surface facets at lower elevations and surface crusts on sun-exposed slopes. A well settled and strong snowpack sits on weak basal facets and depth hoar, which seem to be fairly widespread throughout the region. This deep persistent weakness recently became active again with warm temperatures, but cooler temperatures have once again reduced the sensitivity to triggers. Highly unpredictable glide cracks are also opening up, primarily on slopes with smooth ground cover. These full-depth gaping 'crevasses' could release without warning or act as a significant terrain trap.
Problems
Deep Persistent Slabs
Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.
Cornices
Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.