Avalanche forecast

South Rockies

Apr 14 – 15, 2012Avalanche Canada
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Tue
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
3 · Considerable
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Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely - Possible
    Size
    3–7
    Strong solar radiation or persistent warm temperatures may trigger deeply buried weak layers.

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–4
    Moist or wet loose snow avalanches may release during periods of daytime warming or if periods of rain showers persist. Loose snow avalanches may trigger deeper weak layers.

  • Wet Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely - Possible
    Size
    3–6
    Large triggers like cornices or loose snow avalanches may propagate slides on the buried weak layer from March 27th. The likelihood may increase if there is no overnight freeze.

Confidence

Fair - Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain on Sunday

Weather Forecast

The weak ridge of high pressure that moved into the interior on Saturday should cause some periods of clear skies and light variable winds on Sunday. Some areas may continue to experience convective rain showers and flurries at higher elevations. The freezing level is forecast to drop down to about 800 metres on Sunday night, and then rise to about 1800 metres on Monday. Monday should start out with mostly clear skies. The wind is expected to build out of the west during the day on Monday and some light precipitation is forecast by Tuesday morning.

Avalanche Summary

Spring conditions exist in the region. Exposure to the sun, warm temperatures, and periods of rain are the most likely factors to influence the avalanche danger. If the temperatures go below freezing overnight, strong crusts should develop that are likely to hold the snowpack together. If the sun shines for a few hours, the crusts may break down quickly and moist surface snow avalanches may start running naturally. Continued warming from more sun, rain, or no overnight freeze, may cause surface avalanches to step down and trigger deeper wet slab avalanches. Prolonged warming may cause very deep releases on weak layers that were deposited early in the season, or on depth hoar that developed during the winter. It is important to monitor the temperature and the freezing levels as they may change rapidly from day to day.

Snowpack Summary

As we transition into spring the surface layers of the snowpack have a great deal of influence on the snowpack. When there is a solid re-frozen surface crust, travel is fast and easy, and the snowpack is held together by the surface cap. Any deeper persistent weak layers are unlikely to fail until the surface cap breaks down from daytime heating. When there is no crust, any deeper weak layers may fail depending on the amount of heat and the triggering force that is applied.

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