Avalanche Forecast

Fair - Due to variable weather conditions

A series of Pacific frontal waves and upper troughs will bring continued unsettled weather through the forecast period. Light -moderate precipitation amounts can be expected daily. With fast moving systems, timing seems to be hard to pinpoint. A strong upper SW flow will provide warmer the normal temperatures, rising freezing levels in the afternoon, then falling during the night. Things should start to cool off significantly by Friday. Wednesday: Snow amounts 5-15 cm above 1200 m. Ridgetop winds moderate from the SW. Freezing levels 1500 m. Thursday: Snow amounts 8-15 cm. Ridgetop winds strong from the SW. Freezing levels 1600-1800 m. Friday: Light bands of precipitation, and cloud cover.

On Monday several large natural solar induced cornice releases were reported. These occurred on NW-NE slopes from 2000 m- 2400 m. To note, none of theses cornice falls stepped down to the deeply buried persistent weak layer. I still wouldn't rule out the potential, as we saw that layer reactive only 4 days ago. Numerous loose wet avalanches were also reported on Monday on various aspects, running up to size 2. This could continue in your local mountains if the sun is able to poke through the clouds over the next few days. On Saturday three, size 3 natural avalanches were observed in steep, rocky, unsupported terrain. They occurred between 2000-2800m on north to east aspects and are suspected to have run on the February persistent weak layer.

Recently formed variable wind slabs exist in the alpine and at treeline. Over the past several days, spring-like conditions have influenced the snowpack. Solar radiation has led to moist surfaces on sun exposed slopes up to ridgetop, other aspects moist below 1500 m. Crust recovery developing at night. Cornices have grown large and have become unstable; they may act as a large trigger on slopes below. A consolidated slab overlies a persistent weak layer that was buried in early February. Now 1-2 m below the surface, these weaknesses include surface hoar, facets or crusts. Concern still exists potentially for deep and destructive releases at this interface. This may be a low probability, high consequence problem that may require a large trigger.