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Avalanche Forecast

Feb 25th, 2017–Feb 26th, 2017
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Cariboos.

Avoid lingering in runout zones and watch for shallow snowpack areas where triggering a deep persistent slab avalanche remains possible.

Confidence

High - The weather pattern is stable

Weather Forecast

SUNDAY: Flurries with 2-4 cm of new snow easing off in the morning, light northwest winds, alpine temperatures around -17 C.MONDAY: Mix of sun and cloud, light west winds, alpine temperatures around -17 C.TUESDAY: Mix of sun and cloud with flurries starting in the afternoon, light southwest winds, alpine temperatures around -15 C.

Avalanche Summary

Few avalanches have been reported the past few days. On Thursday, ski cutting produced a few size 1 wind slabs on northerly alpine features. Some fast moving sluffing in the recent snow was also reported in steep alpine terrain. Last weekend, several larger avalanches were reported, including a remotely triggered size 3 avalanche on a deep persistent weak layer near Valemount. See here for a list of recent near misses in the Cariboos and North Rockies. Watch for isolated wind slabs at higher elevations and stay aware of the low probability - high consequence scenario of triggering a deep persistent slab avalanche.

Snowpack Summary

Light flurries over the past few days delivered 15-30 cm of low density snow. Expect to find isolated pockets with thicker wind deposits at higher elevations as well as sun crusts on steep south slopes. The recent snow has buried the mid-February interface, which is composed of a thick rain crust up to about 1700 m, sun crusts on steep solar aspects, and spotty surface hoar on shaded aspects. Some lingering surface hoar layers from January are down about a metre and the weak facets buried in mid-December are down about 1.5 metres. These deep persistent weaknesses still have the potential to wake up and become reactive with human triggers.

Avalanche Problems

Deep Persistent Slabs

A weak layer of facets near the bottom of the snowpack is lingering and may be triggered in shallow snowpack areas to produce large destructive avalanches.
Be aware of the potential for large, deep avalanches due to the presence of buried weak layers.Carefully evaluate and use caution around thin snowpack areas.Avoid lingering in runout zones.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size: 2 - 3

Wind Slabs

Small wind slabs have been lurking below ridge crests and behind terrain features at higher elevations.
If triggered the wind slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.Use ridges or ribs to avoid pockets of wind loaded snow.Avoid recently wind loaded features.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 2